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DVS 33 vs Sparta Nijkerk Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Group A - 32 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 13:00

DVS 33

PPG 2.13 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sparta Nijkerk

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.5%0-24.4%0-32.3%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.1%1-19.8%1-27.8%1-34.1%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.4%2-18.6%2-26.9%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.2%3-15.1%3-24.1%3-32.2%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.4%4+-22.7%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.9% — — —

Draw 24.8% — — —

Away win 34.3% — — —

Over 2.5 60.7% — — —

Over 3.5 43.4% — — —

BTTS 59.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -53.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob59.2%

H 41% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–2✓ 6.9%

#5 2–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

DVS 331.8

Sparta Nijkerk1.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 43.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DVS 33 · PPG 2.13

SPARTA NIJKERK · PPG 1.53

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.13) > Away GOOD (1.53)

Win probability 1X2

DVS 33 (H) 40.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sparta Nijkerk (A) 34.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

DVS 33 face Sparta Nijkerk in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives DVS 33 a 41% chance, the draw 25% and Sparta Nijkerk 34%, so DVS 33 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for DVS 33 and 1.6 for Sparta Nijkerk (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, DVS 33 are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.53 for Sparta Nijkerk. This match finished 2-2.

DVS 33 vs Sparta Nijkerk Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Match Preview & Prediction

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