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Swindon Town vs Accrington Prediction— England - League Two

Regular Season - 44 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 11:30

Swindon Town

PPG 1.81 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Accrington

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-16.1%0-22.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.9%1-110.7%1-23.8%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.0%2-19.3%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.6%3-15.4%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-13.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.0% 60.6% 1.65 +2.3%

Draw 23.1% 26.0% 3.85 -11.1%

Away win 14.9% 20.4% 4.90 -27.0%

Over 2.5 44.5% 54.1% 1.85 -17.7%

Over 3.5 23.3% 30.8% 3.25 -24.3%

BTTS 42.1% 54.6% 1.83 -23.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 9.4%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob42.1%

H 62% / xG 1.7-0.7 / O2.5 44% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.9%

#2 2–0 13.0%

#3 1–1 10.7%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Swindon Town1.7

Accrington0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 23.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SWINDON TOWN · PPG 1.81

ACCRINGTON · PPG 0.95

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.81) vs P(Home)=62.0%

Win probability 1X2

Swindon Town (H) 62.0%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV +2.3%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -11.1%

Accrington (A) 14.9%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV -27.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Swindon Town face Accrington in England - League Two on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Swindon Town a 62% chance, the draw 23% and Accrington 15%, so Swindon Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Swindon Town and 0.7 for Accrington (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Swindon Town are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 0.95 for Accrington. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Swindon Town vs Accrington Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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