Swindon Town vs Accrington Prediction— England - League Two

England - League Two Regular Season - 44 County Ground· Swindon Saturday, April 18, 2026 11:30

Swindon Town PPG 1.81

2-2 MISS

Accrington PPG 0.95

Home· +2.3% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Swindon Town face Accrington in England - League Two on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Swindon Town a 62% chance, the draw 23% and Accrington 15%, so Swindon Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Swindon Town and 0.7 for Accrington (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Swindon Town are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 0.95 for Accrington. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 62.0%

Odds: 1.65 EV: +2.3%

Draw 23.1%

Odds: 3.85 EV: -11.1%

Away 14.9%

Odds: 4.90 EV: -27.0%

Model lean: Home

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 44.5% Odds: 1.85 -17.7%

Over 3.5 23.3% Odds: 3.25 -24.3%

BTTS 42.1% Odds: 1.83 -23.0%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Swindon Town

1.74

Accrington

0.71

Model SuggestionHome +2.3% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5/Under 51%

BTTS/No 61%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -16.4%

Bet Hit 44% (18 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.81) vs P(Home)=62.0%