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Friedberg vs Hanau Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hessen

Hessen - 31 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 13:00

Friedberg

PPG 1.67 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Hanau

PPG 0.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-12.0%0-21.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.0%1-15.7%1-23.3%1-31.3%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.3%2-18.4%2-24.8%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.1%3-18.1%3-24.7%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-010.6%4+-112.2%4+-27.0%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.5% — — —

Draw 21.2% — — —

Away win 19.3% — — —

Over 2.5 61.7% — — —

Over 3.5 58.1% — — —

BTTS 58.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.8%

H 60% / xG 2.9-1.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.4%

#2 3–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 7.3%

#4 3–0✓ 7.1%

#5 1–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Friedberg2.9

Hanau1.2

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 58.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FRIEDBERG · PPG 1.67

HANAU · PPG 0.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=59.5%

Win probability 1X2

Friedberg (H) 59.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Hanau (A) 19.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Friedberg face Hanau in Germany - Oberliga - Hessen on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Friedberg a 60% chance, the draw 21% and Hanau 19%, so Friedberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Friedberg and 1.2 for Hanau (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Friedberg are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.13 for Hanau. This match finished 3-0.

Friedberg vs Hanau Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hessen

Match Preview & Prediction

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