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Darmstadt B vs Fernwald Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hessen

Hessen - 31 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 13:00

Darmstadt B

PPG 1.07 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Fernwald

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-13.2%0-23.8%0-33.0%0-4+3.0%1 1-02.7%1-16.3%1-27.3%1-35.7%1-4+5.8%2 2-02.6%2-16.1%2-27.1%2-35.6%2-4+5.7%3 3-01.7%3-13.9%3-24.6%3-33.6%3-4+3.7%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-13.0%4+-23.5%4+-32.7%4+-4+2.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.6% — — —

Draw 23.5% — — —

Away win 41.9% — — —

Over 2.5 69.8% — — —

Over 3.5 62.0% — — —

BTTS 66.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob66.7%

A 42% / xG 1.9-2.3 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.3%

#2 1–1 6.3%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 2–1 6.1%

#5 1–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Darmstadt B1.9

Fernwald2.3

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 62.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DARMSTADT B · PPG 1.07

FERNWALD · PPG 1.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.07), Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Darmstadt B (H) 34.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fernwald (A) 41.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Darmstadt B face Fernwald in Germany - Oberliga - Hessen on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Darmstadt B a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Fernwald 42%, so Fernwald are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Darmstadt B and 2.3 for Fernwald (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Darmstadt B are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.31 for Fernwald. This match finished 4-1.

Darmstadt B vs Fernwald Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hessen

Match Preview & Prediction

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