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Barrow vs Walsall Prediction— England - League Two

Regular Season - 44 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 11:30

Barrow

PPG 0.90 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

Walsall

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-113.0%0-28.3%0-33.6%0-4+1.5%1 1-010.2%1-113.1%1-28.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.1%2-16.6%2-24.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.7%3-12.2%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.1% 43.1% 2.32 -32.5%

Draw 28.1% 30.3% 3.30 -7.3%

Away win 42.8% 33.6% 2.98 +27.5%

Over 2.5 40.0% 46.5% 2.15 -14.0%

Over 3.5 19.8% 23.8% 4.20 -16.8%

BTTS 45.8% 54.1% 1.85 -15.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 9.4%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob45.8%

A 43% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–1 13.0%

#3 1–0 10.2%

#4 0–0 10.2%

#5 1–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barrow1.0

Walsall1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.0% · O3.5 PROB 19.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BARROW · PPG 0.90

WALSALL · PPG 1.57

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.57) vs Home POOR (0.90)

Win probability 1X2

Barrow (H) 29.1%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV -32.5%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.3%

Walsall (A) 42.8%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV +27.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barrow face Walsall in England - League Two on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barrow a 29% chance, the draw 28% and Walsall 43%, so Walsall are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Barrow and 1.3 for Walsall (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barrow are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 1.57 for Walsall. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +27.5%. This match finished 1-3.

Barrow vs Walsall Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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