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Widzew Lodz vs Lechia Gdansk Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:45

Widzew Lodz

PPG 1.67 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lechia Gdansk

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-16.5%0-24.4%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.2%1-111.0%1-27.3%1-33.3%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.9%2-19.2%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.9%3-15.2%3-23.5%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.2%4+-22.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 49.5% 2.02 -9.1%

Draw 27.2% 28.2% 3.55 -2.1%

Away win 27.8% 29.0% 3.45 -2.5%

Over 2.5 59.3% 54.6% 1.83 +8.5%

Over 3.5 35.6% 32.3% 3.10 +10.4%

BTTS 58.8% 58.8% 1.70 -0.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -15.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.8%

H 45% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–0 6.9%

#5 1–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Widzew Lodz1.7

Lechia Gdansk1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 35.6%

Form & verdict PPG

WIDZEW LODZ · PPG 1.67

LECHIA GDANSK · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Widzew Lodz (H) 45.0%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV -9.1%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -2.1%

Lechia Gdansk (A) 27.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Widzew Lodz face Lechia Gdansk in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Widzew Lodz a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Lechia Gdansk 28%, so Widzew Lodz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Widzew Lodz and 1.3 for Lechia Gdansk (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Widzew Lodz are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Lechia Gdansk. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.4%. This match finished 3-1.

Widzew Lodz vs Lechia Gdansk Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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