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Bolton vs Huddersfield Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 44 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 11:30

Bolton

PPG 2.19 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWWW

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Huddersfield

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDLW

// Model verdict

Home 56% chance

Model probability 67.4% vs bookmaker-implied 51.5% — a clear edge.

+30.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-13.8%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.3%1-18.6%1-24.0%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.8%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.9%3-17.4%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-17.1%4+-23.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.4% 51.5% 1.94 +30.8%

Draw 18.5% 27.4% 3.65 -32.5%

Away win 14.1% 28.2% 3.55 -50.0%

Over 2.5 61.9% 58.8% 1.70 +5.2%

Over 3.5 39.6% 36.4% 2.75 +8.9%

BTTS 54.3% 63.7% 1.57 -14.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -51.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.3%

H 67% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 1–0 9.3%

#4 1–1 8.6%

#5 3–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bolton2.3

Huddersfield0.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.9% · O3.5 PROB 39.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BOLTON · PPG 2.19

HUDDERSFIELD · PPG 1.00

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

56%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.19), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Bolton (H) 67.4%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV +30.8%

Draw 18.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -32.5%

Huddersfield (A) 14.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -50.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bolton face Huddersfield in England - League One on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bolton a 67% chance, the draw 19% and Huddersfield 14%, so Bolton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Bolton and 0.9 for Huddersfield (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bolton are averaging 2.19 points per game versus 1.00 for Huddersfield. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.8%. This match finished 3-3.

Bolton vs Huddersfield Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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