Today / Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday / Staphorst vs HSC 21

Staphorst vs HSC 21 Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Group A - 32 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:30

Staphorst

PPG 1.67 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

HSC 21

PPG 0.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-10.8%0-20.4%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.0%1-13.1%1-21.7%1-30.6%1-4+0.2%2 2-05.6%2-15.9%2-23.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.1%3-17.5%3-24.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-018.3%4+-119.3%4+-210.2%4+-33.6%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.7% — — —

Draw 20.6% — — —

Away win 8.7% — — —

Over 2.5 78.8% — — —

Over 3.5 71.4% — — —

BTTS 58.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -53.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 75%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.8%

H 71% / xG 3.8-1.1 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.5%

#2 4–1 7.1%

#3 3–0 7.1%

#4 4–0✓ 6.8%

#5 2–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Staphorst3.8

HSC 211.1

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.8% · O3.5 PROB 71.4%

Form & verdict PPG

STAPHORST · PPG 1.67

HSC 21 · PPG 0.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.67), Away POOR (0.07) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Staphorst (H) 70.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

HSC 21 (A) 8.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Staphorst face HSC 21 in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Staphorst a 71% chance, the draw 21% and HSC 21 9%, so Staphorst are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for Staphorst and 1.1 for HSC 21 (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Staphorst are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.07 for HSC 21. This match finished 4-0.

Staphorst vs HSC 21 Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Match Preview & Prediction

More Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday Predictions