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Sportlust vs USV Hercules Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Group A - 32 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 13:00

Sportlust

PPG 1.80 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

USV Hercules

PPG 0.47 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-13.3%0-22.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-06.1%1-17.8%1-25.0%1-32.1%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.3%2-19.3%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.8%3-17.4%3-24.7%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-17.8%4+-25.0%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% — — —

Draw 25.1% — — —

Away win 23.0% — — —

Over 2.5 61.7% — — —

Over 3.5 49.9% — — —

BTTS 58.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -53.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.8%

H 52% / xG 2.4-1.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 1–1 7.8%

#3 3–1 7.4%

#4 2–0 7.3%

#5 2–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sportlust2.4

USV Hercules1.3

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 49.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTLUST · PPG 1.80

USV HERCULES · PPG 0.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.80) vs P(Home)=51.9%

Win probability 1X2

Sportlust (H) 51.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

USV Hercules (A) 23.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sportlust face USV Hercules in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sportlust a 52% chance, the draw 25% and USV Hercules 23%, so Sportlust are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Sportlust and 1.3 for USV Hercules (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sportlust are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.47 for USV Hercules. This match finished 0-2.

Sportlust vs USV Hercules Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Match Preview & Prediction

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