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Harkemase Boys vs Raalte Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Group A - 32 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:30

Harkemase Boys

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Raalte

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-18.9%0-27.0%0-33.6%0-4+2.0%1 1-07.4%1-111.6%1-29.1%1-34.7%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.8%2-17.5%2-25.9%2-33.1%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.1%3-13.3%3-22.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.4% — — —

Draw 25.1% — — —

Away win 40.4% — — —

Over 2.5 56.9% — — —

Over 3.5 32.3% — — —

BTTS 58.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -53.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob58.8%

A 40% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–1✓ 7.5%

#4 0–0 5.7%

#5 0–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Harkemase Boys1.3

Raalte1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HARKEMASE BOYS · PPG 1.50

RAALTE · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Harkemase Boys (H) 34.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Raalte (A) 40.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Harkemase Boys face Raalte in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Harkemase Boys a 34% chance, the draw 25% and Raalte 40%, so Raalte are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Harkemase Boys and 1.6 for Raalte (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Harkemase Boys are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.00 for Raalte. This match finished 2-1.

Harkemase Boys vs Raalte Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Match Preview & Prediction

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