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Barnsley vs Bradford Prediction— England - League One

Regular Season - 44 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 11:30

Barnsley

PPG 1.52 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bradford

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-15.5%0-23.3%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.6%1-110.3%1-26.2%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.7%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.1%3-16.1%3-23.7%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-14.4%4+-22.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 31.7% 3.15 +68.2%

Draw 22.5% 29.4% 3.40 -23.5%

Away win 24.1% 45.9% 2.18 -47.5%

Over 2.5 59.6% 55.6% 1.80 +7.3%

Over 3.5 37.2% 33.3% 3.00 +11.6%

BTTS 59.3% 61.7% 1.62 -3.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.3%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–0 8.6%

#4 2–0 8.1%

#5 1–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barnsley1.9

Bradford1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 37.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BARNSLEY · PPG 1.52

BRADFORD · PPG 1.10

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.52) > Away AVERAGE (1.10)

Win probability 1X2

Barnsley (H) 53.4%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +68.2%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -23.5%

Bradford (A) 24.1%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -47.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barnsley face Bradford in England - League One on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barnsley a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Bradford 24%, so Barnsley are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Barnsley and 1.2 for Bradford (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barnsley are averaging 1.52 points per game versus 1.10 for Bradford. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +68.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Barnsley vs Bradford Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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