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Brentford vs Fulham Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 11:30

Brentford

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Fulham

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 59% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-14.8%0-22.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.8%1-19.7%1-25.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.9%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.0%3-16.7%3-23.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-15.4%4+-23.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.7% 48.5% 2.06 +20.9%

Draw 21.1% 27.8% 3.60 -24.0%

Away win 20.2% 30.8% 3.25 -34.4%

Over 2.5 60.8% 57.8% 1.73 +5.2%

Over 3.5 38.5% 35.7% 2.80 +7.8%

BTTS 58.2% 61.7% 1.62 -5.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.2%

H 59% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.9%

#2 1–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brentford2.0

Fulham1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.8% · O3.5 PROB 38.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BRENTFORD · PPG 1.69

FULHAM · PPG 0.94

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.69) > Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Brentford (H) 58.7%

ODDS 2.06 · IMPLIED 48.5% EV +20.9%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -24.0%

Fulham (A) 20.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -34.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brentford face Fulham in England - Premier League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brentford a 59% chance, the draw 21% and Fulham 20%, so Brentford are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Brentford and 1.1 for Fulham (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brentford are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.94 for Fulham. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +20.9%. This match finished 0-0.

Brentford vs Fulham Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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