Today / Germany - 3. Liga / RW Essen vs Verl

RW Essen vs Verl Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Regular Season - 37 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:00

RW Essen

PPG 2.06 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Verl

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-13.8%0-23.7%0-32.4%0-4+1.9%1 1-03.8%1-17.5%1-27.4%1-34.9%1-4+3.8%2 2-03.8%2-17.4%2-27.3%2-34.8%2-4+3.7%3 3-02.5%3-14.9%3-24.8%3-33.2%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-13.8%4+-23.8%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.6% 40.8% 2.45 -5.4%

Draw 25.7% 25.6% 3.90 +0.1%

Away win 35.6% 40.8% 2.45 -12.8%

Over 2.5 61.7% 73.5% 1.36 -16.1%

Over 3.5 55.8% 52.4% 1.91 +6.6%

BTTS 63.0% 76.9% 1.30 -18.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.0%

H 39% / xG 2.0-2.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.5%

#2 2–1 7.4%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 3–1 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

RW Essen2.0

Verl2.0

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 55.8%

Form & verdict PPG

RW ESSEN · PPG 2.06

VERL · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.06) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

RW Essen (H) 38.6%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -5.4%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +0.1%

Verl (A) 35.6%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

RW Essen face Verl in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RW Essen a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Verl 36%, so RW Essen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for RW Essen and 2.0 for Verl (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RW Essen are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.33 for Verl. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.6%. This match finished 1-0.

RW Essen vs Verl Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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