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Energie Cottbus vs Wehen Wiesbaden Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 37 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:00

Energie Cottbus

PPG 2.06 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Wehen Wiesbaden

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 68% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-15.3%0-23.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.9%1-110.2%1-25.9%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.8%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.5%3-16.3%3-23.6%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-14.8%4+-22.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 69.0% 1.45 -28.5%

Draw 25.6% 21.1% 4.75 +13.0%

Away win 25.1% 17.4% 5.75 +26.6%

Over 2.5 59.7% 71.4% 1.40 -16.4%

Over 3.5 37.1% 50.0% 2.00 -25.8%

BTTS 58.8% 66.7% 1.50 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.8%

H 49% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1✓ 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 1–0 8.9%

#5 3–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Energie Cottbus1.9

Wehen Wiesbaden1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ENERGIE COTTBUS · PPG 2.06

WEHEN WIESBADEN · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

68%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs P(Home)=49.3%

Win probability 1X2

Energie Cottbus (H) 49.3%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -28.5%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +13.0%

Wehen Wiesbaden (A) 25.1%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +26.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Energie Cottbus face Wehen Wiesbaden in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Energie Cottbus a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Wehen Wiesbaden 25%, so Energie Cottbus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Energie Cottbus and 1.1 for Wehen Wiesbaden (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Energie Cottbus are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.00 for Wehen Wiesbaden. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +26.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Energie Cottbus vs Wehen Wiesbaden Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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