Today / Germany - 3. Liga / 1860 Munchen vs FC Ingolstadt

1860 Munchen vs FC Ingolstadt Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 37 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:00

1860 Munchen

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

FC Ingolstadt

PPG 1.28 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 65% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-16.6%0-24.6%0-32.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.8%1-110.9%1-27.6%1-33.6%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-19.0%2-26.3%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.6%3-15.0%3-23.5%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.0%4+-22.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 43.5% 2.30 -0.2%

Draw 26.3% 27.0% 3.70 -1.6%

Away win 30.3% 37.0% 2.70 -18.2%

Over 2.5 59.3% 66.7% 1.50 -11.1%

Over 3.5 36.7% 44.4% 2.25 -17.4%

BTTS 58.8% 71.4% 1.40 -17.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.8%

H 43% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2✓ 7.6%

#4 2–0 6.4%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

1860 Munchen1.7

FC Ingolstadt1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

1860 MUNCHEN · PPG 1.89

FC INGOLSTADT · PPG 1.28

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

65%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.89) > Away AVERAGE (1.28)

Win probability 1X2

1860 Munchen (H) 43.4%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -0.2%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -1.6%

FC Ingolstadt (A) 30.3%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

1860 Munchen face FC Ingolstadt in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives 1860 Munchen a 43% chance, the draw 26% and FC Ingolstadt 30%, so 1860 Munchen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for 1860 Munchen and 1.4 for FC Ingolstadt (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, 1860 Munchen are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.28 for FC Ingolstadt. This match finished 1-2.

1860 Munchen vs FC Ingolstadt Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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