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Kauno Zalgiris vs TransINVEST Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 11:15

Kauno Zalgiris

PPG 2.50 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

TransINVEST

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 98.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a clear edge.

+37.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-10.1%0-20.0%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-02.5%1-10.7%1-20.1%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-06.4%2-11.7%2-20.2%2-30.0%2-4+0.0%3 3-010.7%3-12.8%3-20.4%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-057.0%4+-114.8%4+-21.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 98.3% 71.4% 1.40 +37.6%

Draw 1.4% 23.8% 4.20 -94.1%

Away win 0.3% 14.8% 6.75 -98.0%

Over 2.5 89.8% 58.8% 1.70 +52.7%

Over 3.5 77.4% 36.4% 2.75 +112.9%

BTTS 22.7% 54.6% 1.83 -58.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 86%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)5.0 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob22.7%

H 98% / xG 5.0-0.3 / O2.5 90% / NoBTTS 23%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 5–0 13.5%

#2 4–0 13.4%

#3 3–0 10.7%

#4 2–0 6.4%

#5 5–1 3.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kauno Zalgiris5.0

TransINVEST0.3

COMBINED 5.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 89.8% · O3.5 PROB 77.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KAUNO ZALGIRIS · PPG 2.50

TRANSINVEST · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.50), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Kauno Zalgiris (H) 98.3%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV +37.6%

Draw 1.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -94.1%

TransINVEST (A) 0.3%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV -98.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kauno Zalgiris face TransINVEST in Lithuania - A Lyga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kauno Zalgiris a 98% chance, the draw 1% and TransINVEST 0%, so Kauno Zalgiris are favoured to win. Expected goals are 5.0 for Kauno Zalgiris and 0.3 for TransINVEST (5.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 5-0. There is a 90% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 23% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kauno Zalgiris are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.00 for TransINVEST. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +112.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Kauno Zalgiris vs TransINVEST Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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