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Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 36 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 11:30

Liverpool

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Chelsea

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 66% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-16.4%0-24.2%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.3%1-110.9%1-27.2%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.1%2-19.3%2-26.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.0%3-15.3%3-23.5%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.3%4+-22.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 55.2% 1.81 -14.4%

Draw 26.1% 25.3% 3.95 +1.9%

Away win 26.6% 26.7% 3.75 -0.1%

Over 2.5 59.3% 69.4% 1.44 -14.6%

Over 3.5 35.8% 47.6% 2.10 -24.8%

BTTS 58.8% 70.4% 1.42 -16.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.8%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Liverpool1.7

Chelsea1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 35.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LIVERPOOL · PPG 2.00

CHELSEA · PPG 1.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

66%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

Liverpool (H) 47.3%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -14.4%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +1.9%

Chelsea (A) 26.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Liverpool face Chelsea in England - Premier League on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Liverpool a 47% chance, the draw 26% and Chelsea 27%, so Liverpool are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Liverpool and 1.3 for Chelsea (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Liverpool are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.47 for Chelsea. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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