Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction & Tips

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England - Premier League Regular Season - 36 Anfield· Liverpool Saturday, May 9, 2026 11:30

Liverpool PPG 2.00

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Chelsea PPG 1.47

Draw· +1.9% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 47.3%

Odds: 1.81 EV: -14.4%

Draw 26.1%

Odds: 3.95 EV: +1.9%

Away 26.6%

Odds: 3.75 EV: -0.1%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.3% Odds: 1.44 -14.6%

Over 3.5 35.8% Odds: 2.10 -24.8%

BTTS 58.8% Odds: 1.42 -16.5%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Liverpool

1.71

Chelsea

1.32

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -14.6% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -14.6% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+1.9%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5/Under 44%

BTTS/No 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.47)