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Eastern SC vs Tai Po Prediction— Hong-Kong - Premier League

Championship Group - 4 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 10:00

Eastern SC

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Tai Po

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.5%0-24.6%0-32.5%0-4+1.5%1 1-05.7%1-19.6%1-28.0%1-34.4%1-4+2.7%2 2-05.0%2-18.4%2-27.0%2-33.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-02.9%3-14.9%3-24.1%3-32.3%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-13.2%4+-22.6%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% — — —

Draw 25.6% — — —

Away win 35.5% — — —

Over 2.5 61.7% — — —

Over 3.5 44.5% — — —

BTTS 60.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 19%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob60.8%

H 39% / xG 1.7-1.7 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 2–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eastern SC1.7

Tai Po1.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

EASTERN SC · PPG 2.00

TAI PO · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Eastern SC (H) 38.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tai Po (A) 35.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Eastern SC face Tai Po in Hong-Kong - Premier League on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eastern SC a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Tai Po 36%, so Eastern SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Eastern SC and 1.7 for Tai Po (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eastern SC are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.33 for Tai Po. This match finished 2-4.

Eastern SC vs Tai Po Prediction— Hong-Kong - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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