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Eastern D. vs HK Rangers Prediction— Hong-Kong - Premier League

Relegation Group - 5 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 10:00

Eastern D.

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

HK Rangers

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-18.0%0-23.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.2%1-112.1%1-25.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.2%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.4%3-14.6%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.5% 46.5% 2.15 +8.6%

Draw 25.7% 29.9% 3.35 -8.3%

Away win 23.8% 34.5% 2.90 -18.6%

Over 2.5 47.1% 59.9% 1.67 -21.3%

Over 3.5 21.6% 37.7% 2.65 -25.7%

BTTS 50.9% 65.4% 1.53 -22.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 19%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.9%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.1%

#2 1–0 14.2%

#3 0–0 9.3%

#4 2–0 10.8%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eastern D.1.5

HK Rangers0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.1% · O3.5 PROB 21.6%

Form & verdict PPG

EASTERN D. · PPG 1.00

HK RANGERS · PPG 0.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.70)

Win probability 1X2

Eastern D. (H) 50.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +8.6%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -8.3%

HK Rangers (A) 23.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eastern D. face HK Rangers in Hong-Kong - Premier League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eastern D. a 51% chance, the draw 26% and HK Rangers 24%, so Eastern D. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Eastern D. and 0.9 for HK Rangers (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eastern D. are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.70 for HK Rangers. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Eastern D. vs HK Rangers Prediction— Hong-Kong - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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