Premier League

HONG KONG · 16 MATCHES TRACKED · 18 APR 2026 – 17 MAY 2026

▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE

MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 16 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

25.0%

1X2

4/16

68.8%

O/U 2.5

11/16

75.0%

BTTS

12/16

18.8%

Exact score

3/16

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

75.0%

Hit rate

9/12

1.43

Avg odds

+10.8%

ROI

+1.3u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

BTTS · N=7 85.7% HIT · AVG 1.50 · +29.1% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=4 75.0% HIT · AVG 1.39 · +6.5% ROI

HOME WIN · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.15 · -100.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

✓ Solid

Bets

100%

Hit

+48.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

67%

Hit

+3.0%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

75%

Hit

+9.1%

ROI

Match log

16 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

May 2026 // 9 PICKS · 7 HIT · 2 MISS

17 MAY Kitchee vs Eastern SC Over 2.5 -5% 4–4 HIT 16 MAY Kowloon City vs Hong Kong FC Over 2.5 -18% 1–1 MISS 16 MAY Eastern D. vs HK Rangers BTTS -22% 1–1 HIT 10 MAY Hong Kong FC vs HK Rangers Over 2.5 -18% 2–1 HIT 9 MAY Southern D. vs Eastern D. — NO PICK 2–2 —9 MAY Eastern SC vs Tai Po Over 2.5 2–4 HIT 3 MAY Hong Kong FC vs Southern D. BTTS -6% 1–4 HIT 3 MAY HK Rangers vs Kowloon City BTTS -9% 1–2 HIT 2 MAY Tai Po vs Kitchee BTTS -0% 3–0 MISS 1 MAY Eastern SC vs North District BTTS -3% 3–1 HIT

April 2026 // 4 PICKS · 3 HIT · 1 MISS

26 APR Southern D. vs Kowloon City BTTS -12% 3–1 HIT 25 APR North District vs Kitchee Over 2.5 +7% 2–2 HIT 25 APR Eastern D. vs Hong Kong FC Home -16% 1–2 MISS 19 APR Kowloon City vs Eastern D. — NO PICK 2–1 —19 APR HK Rangers vs Southern D. BTTS -21% 3–1 HIT