Premier League

HONG KONG · 24 MATCHES TRACKED · 18 APR 2026 – 30 AUG 2026

● LOW SAMPLE

FEWER THAN 10 SETTLED PICKS — NO VERDICT YET

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 24 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

41.7%

1X2

10/24

70.8%

O/U 2.5

17/24

70.8%

BTTS

17/24

16.7%

Exact score

4/24

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

50.0%

Hit rate

1/2

1.46

Avg odds

-29.0%

ROI

-0.6u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

OVER 2.5 · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.46 · -29.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

Hit

-100.0%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

100%

Hit

+42.0%

ROI

Match log

24 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

August 2026 // 8 PICKS · 6 HIT · 2 MISS

30 AUG Wofoo Tai Po vs Eastern Over 2.5 -21% 4–1 HIT 30 AUG BC Rangers vs Eastern District BTTS -6% 1–3 HIT 29 AUG North District vs Kitchee Over 2.5 -13% 0–0 MISS 29 AUG Southern District vs Kowloon City HO1.5 2–1 HIT 23 AUG North District vs Wofoo Tai Po Over 2.5 +1% 2–0 MISS 23 AUG Warriors vs Kowloon City HO1.5 3–0 HIT 22 AUG Southern District vs Hong Kong FC HO1.5 3–2 HIT 22 AUG BC Rangers vs Kitchee Over 2.5 -13% 2–3 HIT

May 2026 // 6 PICKS · 5 HIT · 1 MISS

17 MAY Kitchee vs Eastern SC Over 2.5 -5% 4–4 HIT 16 MAY Kowloon City vs Hong Kong FC Over 2.5 -18% 1–1 MISS 16 MAY Eastern D. vs HK Rangers BTTS -22% 1–1 HIT 10 MAY Hong Kong FC vs HK Rangers Over 2.5 -18% 2–1 HIT 9 MAY Southern D. vs Eastern D. — NO PICK 2–2 —9 MAY Eastern SC vs Tai Po Over 2.5 2–4 HIT 3 MAY Hong Kong FC vs Southern D. BTTS -6% 1–4 HIT