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Southern D. vs Kowloon City Prediction— Hong-Kong - Premier League

Relegation Group - 2 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 07:00

Southern D.

PPG 1.33 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Kowloon City

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-19.2%0-26.7%0-33.2%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.3%1-112.0%1-28.7%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.4%2-17.9%2-25.7%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.4%3-13.4%3-22.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 42.6% 2.35 -14.0%

Draw 30.1% 29.0% 3.45 +3.9%

Away win 33.3% 38.5% 2.60 -13.4%

Over 2.5 51.6% 60.6% 1.65 -14.9%

Over 3.5 29.9% 38.5% 2.60 -22.3%

BTTS 58.5% 66.7% 1.50 -12.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 19%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.5%

D 30% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 0–0 6.3%

#4 2–1 7.9%

#5 0–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Southern D.1.3

Kowloon City1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTHERN D. · PPG 1.33

KOWLOON CITY · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

Southern D. (H) 36.6%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -14.0%

Draw 30.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +3.9%

Kowloon City (A) 33.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -13.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Southern D. face Kowloon City in Hong-Kong - Premier League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Southern D. a 37% chance, the draw 30% and Kowloon City 33%, so Southern D. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Southern D. and 1.5 for Kowloon City (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Southern D. are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.11 for Kowloon City. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.9%. This match finished 3-1.

Southern D. vs Kowloon City Prediction— Hong-Kong - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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