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Tai Po vs Kitchee Prediction— Hong-Kong - Premier League

Championship Group · Matchday 3 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 07:00

Tai Po

PPG 2.20 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Kitchee

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 69% chance

Model probability 69.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-15.8%0-25.6%0-33.6%0-4+2.7%1 1-04.7%1-19.1%1-28.8%1-35.7%1-4+4.3%2 2-03.7%2-17.2%2-26.9%2-34.5%2-4+3.4%3 3-01.9%3-13.8%3-23.7%3-32.4%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.1%4+-22.0%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.3% 31.3% 3.20 -3.0%

Draw 24.6% 28.2% 3.55 -12.7%

Away win 45.2% 50.0% 2.00 -9.6%

Over 2.5 68.3% 65.4% 1.53 +4.5%

Over 3.5 46.8% 43.5% 2.30 +7.6%

BTTS 69.3% 69.4% 1.44 -0.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 15%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob69.3%

A 45% / xG 1.6-1.9 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.2%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 1–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tai Po1.6

Kitchee1.9

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.3% · O3.5 PROB 46.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TAI PO · PPG 2.20

KITCHEE · PPG 2.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

69%

DANGER

Home weakness: EXCELLENT (2.20) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.60)

Win probability 1X2

Tai Po (H) 30.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -3.0%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -12.7%

Kitchee (A) 45.2%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tai Po face Kitchee in Hong-Kong - Premier League on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tai Po a 30% chance, the draw 25% and Kitchee 45%, so Kitchee are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Tai Po and 1.9 for Kitchee (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tai Po are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 2.60 for Kitchee. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.6%. This match finished 3-0.

Tai Po vs Kitchee Prediction— Hong-Kong - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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