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Southern D. vs Eastern D. Prediction— Hong-Kong - Premier League

Relegation Group - 4 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 07:00

Southern D.

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Eastern D.

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.5%0-112.8%0-26.1%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.2%1-113.5%1-26.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.4%2-17.1%2-23.4%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.6%3-12.5%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.2% — — —

Draw 30.8% — — —

Away win 31.1% — — —

Over 2.5 40.9% — — —

Over 3.5 14.4% — — —

BTTS 48.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 19%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.2%

D 31% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 13.5%

#3 1–0 14.2%

#4 0–1 12.8%

#5 2–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Southern D.1.1

Eastern D.1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.9% · O3.5 PROB 14.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTHERN D. · PPG 1.50

EASTERN D. · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.90)

Win probability 1X2

Southern D. (H) 38.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Eastern D. (A) 31.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Southern D. face Eastern D. in Hong-Kong - Premier League on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Southern D. a 38% chance, the draw 31% and Eastern D. 31%, so Southern D. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Southern D. and 1.0 for Eastern D. (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Southern D. are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.90 for Eastern D.. This match finished 2-2.

Southern D. vs Eastern D. Prediction— Hong-Kong - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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