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Hong Kong FC vs HK Rangers Prediction— Hong-Kong - Premier League

Relegation Group - 4 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 10:00

Hong Kong FC

PPG 0.10 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

HK Rangers

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-18.0%0-28.0%0-35.4%0-4+4.3%1 1-04.8%1-19.7%1-29.8%1-36.5%1-4+5.2%2 2-02.9%2-15.9%2-25.9%2-34.0%2-4+3.2%3 3-01.2%3-12.4%3-22.4%3-31.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.3% 15.6% 6.40 +29.5%

Draw 25.0% 21.1% 4.75 +11.3%

Away win 51.7% 73.5% 1.36 -29.7%

Over 2.5 60.2% 73.5% 1.36 -18.1%

Over 3.5 40.3% 51.8% 1.93 -22.2%

BTTS 58.8% 66.7% 1.50 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 19%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob58.8%

A 52% / xG 1.2-2.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 8.0%

#4 1–3 6.5%

#5 0–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hong Kong FC1.2

HK Rangers2.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HONG KONG FC · PPG 0.10

HK RANGERS · PPG 0.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: POOR form (0.78) vs Home POOR (0.10)

Win probability 1X2

Hong Kong FC (H) 23.3%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +29.5%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +11.3%

HK Rangers (A) 51.7%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -29.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hong Kong FC face HK Rangers in Hong-Kong - Premier League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hong Kong FC a 23% chance, the draw 25% and HK Rangers 52%, so HK Rangers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Hong Kong FC and 2.0 for HK Rangers (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hong Kong FC are averaging 0.10 points per game versus 0.78 for HK Rangers. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +29.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Hong Kong FC vs HK Rangers Prediction— Hong-Kong - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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