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Hong Kong FC vs Southern D. Prediction— Hong-Kong - Premier League

Relegation Group - 3 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 07:00

Hong Kong FC

PPG 0.11 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Southern D.

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.0% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-110.4%0-28.8%0-35.0%0-4+3.1%1 1-06.7%1-111.4%1-29.7%1-35.5%1-4+3.4%2 2-03.7%2-16.2%2-25.3%2-33.0%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.3%3-12.3%3-21.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.8% 12.8% 7.80 +77.8%

Draw 27.5% 21.7% 4.60 +26.5%

Away win 49.7% 75.2% 1.33 -33.9%

Over 2.5 52.8% 67.6% 1.48 -21.9%

Over 3.5 30.5% 45.5% 2.20 -32.9%

BTTS 56.0% 59.9% 1.67 -6.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 19%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob56.0%

A 50% / xG 1.1-1.7 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.8%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hong Kong FC1.1

Southern D.1.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 30.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HONG KONG FC · PPG 0.11

SOUTHERN D. · PPG 0.60

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.11) vs Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Hong Kong FC (H) 22.8%

ODDS 7.80 · IMPLIED 12.8% EV +77.8%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +26.5%

Southern D. (A) 49.7%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -33.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hong Kong FC face Southern D. in Hong-Kong - Premier League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hong Kong FC a 23% chance, the draw 28% and Southern D. 50%, so Southern D. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Hong Kong FC and 1.7 for Southern D. (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hong Kong FC are averaging 0.11 points per game versus 0.60 for Southern D.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +77.8%. This match finished 1-4.

Hong Kong FC vs Southern D. Prediction— Hong-Kong - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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