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Eastern SC vs North District Prediction— Hong-Kong - Premier League

Championship Group - 3 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 07:00

Eastern SC

PPG 1.89 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

North District

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.6%0-24.6%0-32.6%0-4+1.5%1 1-05.8%1-19.6%1-28.0%1-34.4%1-4+2.7%2 2-05.0%2-18.4%2-27.0%2-33.9%2-4+2.3%3 3-02.9%3-14.8%3-24.0%3-32.2%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-13.1%4+-22.6%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.8% 30.3% 3.30 +28.0%

Draw 25.5% 28.2% 3.55 -9.5%

Away win 35.7% 51.3% 1.95 -30.4%

Over 2.5 66.0% 66.7% 1.50 -1.0%

Over 3.5 44.2% 45.5% 2.20 -2.8%

BTTS 68.2% 70.4% 1.42 -3.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 19%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob68.2%

H 39% / xG 1.7-1.7 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 2–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eastern SC1.7

North District1.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.2%

Form & verdict PPG

EASTERN SC · PPG 1.89

NORTH DISTRICT · PPG 1.60

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.89), Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Eastern SC (H) 38.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +28.0%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -9.5%

North District (A) 35.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -30.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eastern SC face North District in Hong-Kong - Premier League on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eastern SC a 39% chance, the draw 26% and North District 36%, so Eastern SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Eastern SC and 1.7 for North District (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eastern SC are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.60 for North District. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +28.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Eastern SC vs North District Prediction— Hong-Kong - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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