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Adelaide City vs Campbelltown Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 09:30

Adelaide City

PPG 2.33 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Campbelltown

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.8% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-12.3%0-22.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-03.4%1-16.0%1-25.3%1-33.1%1-4+2.1%2 2-04.3%2-17.6%2-26.8%2-34.0%2-4+2.7%3 3-03.7%3-16.5%3-25.8%3-33.4%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-17.7%4+-26.8%4+-34.0%4+-4+2.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 55.6% 1.80 -9.6%

Draw 24.3% 27.0% 3.70 -6.0%

Away win 25.5% 28.6% 3.50 -6.5%

Over 2.5 69.8% 75.2% 1.33 -7.2%

Over 3.5 62.9% 54.6% 1.83 +15.1%

BTTS 64.9% 75.2% 1.33 -13.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob64.9%

H 50% / xG 2.6-1.8 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 7.6%

#2 1–1 6.0%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 3–1 6.5%

#5 3–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide City2.6

Campbelltown1.8

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 62.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE CITY · PPG 2.33

CAMPBELLTOWN · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide City (H) 50.2%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -9.6%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.0%

Campbelltown (A) 25.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide City face Campbelltown in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide City a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Campbelltown 26%, so Adelaide City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Adelaide City and 1.8 for Campbelltown (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide City are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.75 for Campbelltown. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Adelaide City vs Campbelltown Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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