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Bulleen vs M. Srbija Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 08:30

Bulleen

PPG 1.80 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

M. Srbija

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-15.3%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.2%1-110.2%1-24.2%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.8%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.5%3-16.3%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-14.7%4+-22.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 57.8% 1.73 -11.8%

Draw 26.4% 28.6% 3.50 -4.6%

Away win 22.6% 26.3% 3.80 -8.5%

Over 2.5 53.1% 63.7% 1.57 -16.6%

Over 3.5 29.9% 44.1% 2.27 -19.3%

BTTS 52.3% 66.7% 1.50 -21.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 51% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.8%

#2 1–1 10.2%

#3 1–0 12.2%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0✓ 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bulleen1.9

M. Srbija0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BULLEEN · PPG 1.80

M. SRBIJA · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.80) vs P(Home)=51.0%

Win probability 1X2

Bulleen (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -11.8%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.6%

M. Srbija (A) 22.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bulleen face M. Srbija in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bulleen a 51% chance, the draw 26% and M. Srbija 23%, so Bulleen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Bulleen and 0.8 for M. Srbija (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bulleen are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.50 for M. Srbija. This match finished 0-0.

Bulleen vs M. Srbija Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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