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Croydon Kings vs FK Beograd Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 07:30

Croydon Kings

PPG 1.40 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

FK Beograd

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-15.9%0-25.0%0-32.9%0-4+1.8%1 1-05.7%1-19.8%1-28.3%1-34.8%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.7%2-18.1%2-26.9%2-34.0%2-4+2.5%3 3-02.6%3-14.5%3-23.8%3-32.2%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.7%4+-22.3%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% — — —

Draw 26.3% — — —

Away win 36.4% — — —

Over 2.5 60.9% — — —

Over 3.5 43.5% — — —

BTTS 59.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob59.3%

A 36% / xG 1.7-1.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 1–2 8.3%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–2✓ 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Croydon Kings1.7

FK Beograd1.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CROYDON KINGS · PPG 1.40

FK BEOGRAD · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Croydon Kings (H) 37.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

FK Beograd (A) 36.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Croydon Kings face FK Beograd in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Croydon Kings a 37% chance, the draw 26% and FK Beograd 36%, so Croydon Kings are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Croydon Kings and 1.7 for FK Beograd (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Croydon Kings are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.00 for FK Beograd. This match finished 0-2.

Croydon Kings vs FK Beograd Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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