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Adelaide Utd B vs NE MetroStars Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 06:45

Adelaide Utd B

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 6

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

NE MetroStars

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-16.6%0-25.7%0-33.3%0-4+2.1%1 1-05.8%1-110.1%1-28.8%1-35.1%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.5%2-17.8%2-26.7%2-33.9%2-4+2.5%3 3-02.3%3-14.0%3-23.5%3-32.0%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.2%4+-21.9%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% 33.3% 3.00 +5.3%

Draw 24.9% 27.0% 3.70 -4.7%

Away win 40.0% 51.3% 1.95 -22.0%

Over 2.5 60.2% 71.4% 1.40 -15.7%

Over 3.5 41.4% 52.4% 1.91 -20.9%

BTTS 58.8% 71.4% 1.40 -17.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-6

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob58.8%

A 40% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide Utd B1.5

NE MetroStars1.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 41.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE UTD B · PPG 1.33

NE METROSTARS · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide Utd B (H) 35.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +5.3%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -4.7%

NE MetroStars (A) 40.0%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -22.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide Utd B face NE MetroStars in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide Utd B a 35% chance, the draw 25% and NE MetroStars 40%, so NE MetroStars are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Adelaide Utd B and 1.7 for NE MetroStars (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide Utd B are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.00 for NE MetroStars. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 1-6.

Adelaide Utd B vs NE MetroStars Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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