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Cruzeiro W vs America M. W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Regular Season - 10 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 22:00

Cruzeiro W

PPG 1.75 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

America M. W

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.0% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-12.1%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.0%1-15.7%1-21.5%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.6%2-17.6%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-013.0%3-16.8%3-21.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-016.6%4+-18.6%4+-22.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.0% 87.7% 1.14 -20.2%

Draw 21.2% 16.7% 6.00 +16.3%

Away win 8.7% 6.3% 16.00 +23.5%

Over 2.5 60.2% 69.0% 1.45 -12.7%

Over 3.5 39.5% 47.6% 2.10 -17.1%

BTTS 48.2% 44.4% 2.25 +8.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -30.5%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 50%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.2%

H 70% / xG 2.7-0.5 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.6%

#2 3–0 13.0%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 4–0✓ 8.7%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cruzeiro W2.7

America M. W0.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CRUZEIRO W · PPG 1.75

AMERICA M. W · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Cruzeiro W (H) 70.0%

ODDS 1.14 · IMPLIED 87.7% EV -20.2%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +16.3%

America M. W (A) 8.7%

ODDS 16.00 · IMPLIED 6.3% EV +23.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cruzeiro W face America M. W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cruzeiro W a 70% chance, the draw 21% and America M. W 9%, so Cruzeiro W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Cruzeiro W and 0.5 for America M. W (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cruzeiro W are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.00 for America M. W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.5%. This match finished 4-0.

Cruzeiro W vs America M. W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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