← Back to picks 
France - Ligue 1 Friday, May 8, 2026 18:45 
Lens PPG 2.60 
Nantes PPG 0.69
France - Ligue 1 Friday, May 8, 2026 18:45 Lens PPG 2.601-0 HIT CS2
Nantes PPG 0.69Draw· +6.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 55.4% Odds: 1.50 -16.9%
Over 3.5 32.0% Odds: 2.20 -29.6%
BTTS 51.0% Odds: 1.62 -17.4%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st 2-0 ✘
2nd 1-0 ✔
3rd 1-1 ✘
4th 3-0 ✘
5th 2-1 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Lens 2.17
Nantes 0.69
Model Suggestion
Home -13.6% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -13.6% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Draw (+6.8%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Draw (+6.8%) — probability too low to qualify.
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 55%
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs P(Home)=60.4%