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Lens vs Nantes Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Regular Season - 33 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:45

Lens

PPG 2.60 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Nantes

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-13.9%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.5%1-18.6%1-22.9%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.5%2-19.3%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.8%3-16.7%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.8%4+-16.0%4+-22.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.4% 69.9% 1.43 -13.6%

Draw 24.2% 21.7% 4.60 +6.8%

Away win 15.3% 15.4% 6.50 -0.3%

Over 2.5 55.4% 66.7% 1.50 -16.9%

Over 3.5 32.0% 45.5% 2.20 -29.6%

BTTS 51.0% 61.7% 1.62 -17.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob51.0%

H 60% / xG 2.2-0.7 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.5%

#2 1–0✓ 12.5%

#3 1–1 8.6%

#4 3–0 9.8%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lens2.2

Nantes0.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LENS · PPG 2.60

NANTES · PPG 0.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs P(Home)=60.4%

Win probability 1X2

Lens (H) 60.4%

ODDS 1.43 · IMPLIED 69.9% EV -13.6%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +6.8%

Nantes (A) 15.3%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lens face Nantes in France - Ligue 1 on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lens a 60% chance, the draw 24% and Nantes 15%, so Lens are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Lens and 0.7 for Nantes (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lens are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 0.69 for Nantes. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Lens vs Nantes Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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