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Lech Poznan vs Arka Gdynia Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 32 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:30

Lech Poznan

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Arka Gdynia

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 66% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-13.0%0-21.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.9%1-17.5%1-23.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.8%2-19.4%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.2%3-17.9%3-23.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-09.3%4+-18.9%4+-24.3%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.5% 71.4% 1.40 -16.7%

Draw 21.2% 20.6% 4.85 +1.7%

Away win 19.3% 14.8% 6.75 +18.2%

Over 2.5 61.7% 67.6% 1.48 -8.7%

Over 3.5 45.4% 45.5% 2.20 -0.1%

BTTS 54.6% 60.6% 1.65 -9.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 60% / xG 2.5-1.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–1✓ 7.5%

#4 3–0 8.2%

#5 3–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lech Poznan2.5

Arka Gdynia1.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 45.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LECH POZNAN · PPG 1.73

ARKA GDYNIA · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.73) vs P(Home)=59.5%

Win probability 1X2

Lech Poznan (H) 59.5%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -16.7%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 4.85 · IMPLIED 20.6% EV +1.7%

Arka Gdynia (A) 19.3%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV +18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lech Poznan face Arka Gdynia in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lech Poznan a 60% chance, the draw 21% and Arka Gdynia 19%, so Lech Poznan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Lech Poznan and 1.0 for Arka Gdynia (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lech Poznan are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.33 for Arka Gdynia. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Lech Poznan vs Arka Gdynia Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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