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Wil vs Yverdon Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Regular Season - 34 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:15

Wil

PPG 1.25 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Yverdon

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-18.8%0-28.5%0-35.5%0-4+4.2%1 1-05.2%1-110.1%1-29.8%1-36.4%1-4+4.9%2 2-03.0%2-15.8%2-25.7%2-33.7%2-4+2.8%3 3-01.2%3-12.2%3-22.2%3-31.4%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.8% 37.0% 2.70 -23.1%

Draw 25.2% 28.6% 3.50 -7.1%

Away win 52.0% 43.5% 2.30 +19.6%

Over 2.5 60.0% 63.7% 1.57 -5.8%

Over 3.5 37.5% 42.0% 2.38 -10.8%

BTTS 58.8% 69.4% 1.44 -15.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 93%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 38.5%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob58.8%

A 52% / xG 1.2-1.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 8.5%

#4 0–1✓ 8.8%

#5 1–3 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wil1.2

Yverdon1.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.0% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

WIL · PPG 1.25

YVERDON · PPG 1.75

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.25) vs Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Wil (H) 22.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -23.1%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.1%

Yverdon (A) 52.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wil face Yverdon in Switzerland - Challenge League on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wil a 23% chance, the draw 25% and Yverdon 52%, so Yverdon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Wil and 1.9 for Yverdon (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wil are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.75 for Yverdon. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Wil vs Yverdon Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Switzerland - Challenge League Predictions