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Rapperswil vs Neuchatel Xamax Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Regular Season - 34 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:15

Rapperswil

PPG 1.38 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Neuchatel Xamax

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.8%0-25.1%0-32.5%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.3%1-110.9%1-28.1%1-34.1%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.8%2-18.6%2-26.5%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.1%3-14.6%3-23.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.6%4+-21.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.5% 39.2% 2.55 -1.8%

Draw 25.8% 27.8% 3.60 -4.3%

Away win 35.7% 43.5% 2.30 -17.9%

Over 2.5 59.8% 66.7% 1.50 -10.3%

Over 3.5 37.3% 44.4% 2.25 -16.1%

BTTS 58.8% 70.4% 1.42 -16.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 93%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 38.5%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.8%

H 38% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–0 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rapperswil1.6

Neuchatel Xamax1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

RAPPERSWIL · PPG 1.38

NEUCHATEL XAMAX · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Rapperswil (H) 38.5%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -1.8%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -4.3%

Neuchatel Xamax (A) 35.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rapperswil face Neuchatel Xamax in Switzerland - Challenge League on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rapperswil a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Neuchatel Xamax 36%, so Rapperswil are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Rapperswil and 1.5 for Neuchatel Xamax (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rapperswil are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.94 for Neuchatel Xamax. This match finished 2-3.

Rapperswil vs Neuchatel Xamax Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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