Today / Switzerland - Challenge League / Lausanne Ouchy vs Bellinzona

Lausanne Ouchy vs Bellinzona Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Regular Season - 34 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:15

Lausanne Ouchy

PPG 1.25 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bellinzona

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-14.3%0-22.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.5%1-19.2%1-25.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.1%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.5%3-17.1%3-23.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-16.2%4+-23.4%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% 65.4% 1.53 -21.8%

Draw 26.3% 24.4% 4.10 +4.7%

Away win 22.6% 20.0% 5.00 +7.8%

Over 2.5 60.2% 67.6% 1.48 -10.9%

Over 3.5 40.3% 45.5% 2.20 -11.3%

BTTS 58.8% 66.7% 1.50 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 93%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 38.5%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.8%

H 51% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 1–0 8.5%

#5 3–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lausanne Ouchy2.1

Bellinzona1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LAUSANNE OUCHY · PPG 1.25

BELLINZONA · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.25) vs P(Home)=51.1%

Win probability 1X2

Lausanne Ouchy (H) 51.1%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -21.8%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +4.7%

Bellinzona (A) 22.6%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lausanne Ouchy face Bellinzona in Switzerland - Challenge League on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lausanne Ouchy a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Bellinzona 23%, so Lausanne Ouchy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Lausanne Ouchy and 1.1 for Bellinzona (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lausanne Ouchy are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.25 for Bellinzona. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.8%. This match finished 5-0.

Lausanne Ouchy vs Bellinzona Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Switzerland - Challenge League Predictions