Today / Switzerland - Challenge League / Etoile Carouge vs Vaduz

Etoile Carouge vs Vaduz Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Regular Season - 34 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:15

Etoile Carouge

PPG 1.13 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Vaduz

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-110.3%0-29.0%0-35.3%0-4+3.4%1 1-06.4%1-111.2%1-29.8%1-35.7%1-4+3.7%2 2-03.4%2-16.0%2-25.3%2-33.1%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.2%3-12.2%3-21.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.0% 26.7% 3.75 +0.8%

Draw 27.2% 27.4% 3.65 -0.4%

Away win 45.8% 55.6% 1.80 -17.6%

Over 2.5 53.1% 63.7% 1.57 -16.6%

Over 3.5 31.5% 42.0% 2.38 -25.0%

BTTS 54.6% 67.6% 1.48 -19.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 93%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 38.5%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob54.6%

A 46% / xG 1.1-1.7 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2✓ 9.8%

#3 0–2 9.0%

#4 0–1 10.3%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Etoile Carouge1.1

Vaduz1.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ETOILE CAROUGE · PPG 1.13

VADUZ · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Etoile Carouge (H) 27.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +0.8%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -0.4%

Vaduz (A) 45.8%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -17.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Etoile Carouge face Vaduz in Switzerland - Challenge League on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Etoile Carouge a 27% chance, the draw 27% and Vaduz 46%, so Vaduz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Etoile Carouge and 1.7 for Vaduz (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Etoile Carouge are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.75 for Vaduz. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Etoile Carouge vs Vaduz Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Switzerland - Challenge League Predictions