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Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Regular Season - 34 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:15

Aarau

PPG 2.31 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Stade Nyonnais

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.7% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-14.5%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.3%1-19.3%1-23.5%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-19.6%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.8%3-16.6%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-15.5%4+-22.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.7% 74.1% 1.35 -22.1%

Draw 23.6% 21.7% 4.60 +5.1%

Away win 18.7% 13.9% 7.20 +20.8%

Over 2.5 53.1% 70.4% 1.42 -24.6%

Over 3.5 31.2% 50.0% 2.00 -37.6%

BTTS 52.3% 63.7% 1.57 -17.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 93%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 38.5%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 58% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.7%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 1–1 9.3%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aarau2.1

Stade Nyonnais0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AARAU · PPG 2.31

STADE NYONNAIS · PPG 0.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.31) vs P(Home)=57.7%

Win probability 1X2

Aarau (H) 57.7%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -22.1%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +5.1%

Stade Nyonnais (A) 18.7%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV +20.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aarau face Stade Nyonnais in Switzerland - Challenge League on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aarau a 58% chance, the draw 24% and Stade Nyonnais 19%, so Aarau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Aarau and 0.8 for Stade Nyonnais (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aarau are averaging 2.31 points per game versus 0.56 for Stade Nyonnais. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +20.8%. This match finished 5-1.

Aarau vs Stade Nyonnais Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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