Today / Netherlands - Eredivisie Women / Utrecht W vs Heerenveen W

Utrecht W vs Heerenveen W Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie Women

Regular Season - 21 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:00

Utrecht W

PPG 1.40 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Heerenveen W

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-12.4%0-22.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-03.3%1-16.0%1-25.5%1-33.3%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.2%2-17.6%2-26.9%2-34.2%2-4+2.9%3 3-03.5%3-16.3%3-25.7%3-33.5%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-17.2%4+-26.5%4+-34.0%4+-4+2.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% — — —

Draw 24.3% — — —

Away win 25.5% — — —

Over 2.5 69.8% — — —

Over 3.5 62.6% — — —

BTTS 65.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob65.9%

H 50% / xG 2.5-1.8 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.6%

#2 1–1 6.0%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 3–1 6.3%

#5 3–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Utrecht W2.5

Heerenveen W1.8

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 62.6%

Form & verdict PPG

UTRECHT W · PPG 1.40

HEERENVEEN W · PPG 1.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.10)

Win probability 1X2

Utrecht W (H) 50.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Heerenveen W (A) 25.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Utrecht W face Heerenveen W in Netherlands - Eredivisie Women on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Utrecht W a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Heerenveen W 26%, so Utrecht W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Utrecht W and 1.8 for Heerenveen W (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Utrecht W are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.10 for Heerenveen W. This match finished 5-1.

Utrecht W vs Heerenveen W Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie Women

Match Preview & Prediction

More Netherlands - Eredivisie Women Predictions