← Back to picks 
Germany - 3. Liga Friday, May 8, 2026 17:00 
Erzgebirge Aue PPG 1.06 
MSV Duisburg PPG 1.11
Germany - 3. Liga Friday, May 8, 2026 17:00 Erzgebirge Aue PPG 1.060-0 MISS
MSV Duisburg PPG 1.11Home· +30.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...
48% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Draw
✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 60.2% Odds: 1.50 -9.7%
Over 3.5 42.3% Odds: 2.25 -4.8%
BTTS 58.8% Odds: 1.57 -7.7%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 1-2 ✘
3rd 2-1 ✘
4th 0-2 ✘
5th 2-2 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Erzgebirge Aue 1.39
MSV Duisburg 1.93
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5 -9.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -9.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Home (+30.4%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Home (+30.4%) — probability too low to qualify.
League Track Record ↗
Based on 46 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 63%
O2.5/Under 70%
BTTS/No 65%
Score Hit 30%
ROI 12.3%
Bet Hit 67% (12 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...
BALANCED 48%
Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away AVERAGE (1.11)