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Erzgebirge Aue vs MSV Duisburg Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Regular Season - 37 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 17:00

Erzgebirge Aue

PPG 1.06 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

MSV Duisburg

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-17.0%0-26.7%0-34.3%0-4+3.2%1 1-05.1%1-19.7%1-29.4%1-36.0%1-4+4.5%2 2-03.5%2-16.8%2-26.5%2-34.2%2-4+3.1%3 3-01.6%3-13.1%3-23.0%3-31.9%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.7% 19.0% 5.25 +30.4%

Draw 26.6% 22.2% 4.50 +11.8%

Away win 44.7% 65.4% 1.53 -31.6%

Over 2.5 60.2% 66.7% 1.50 -9.7%

Over 3.5 42.3% 44.4% 2.25 -4.8%

BTTS 58.8% 63.7% 1.57 -7.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob58.8%

A 45% / xG 1.4-1.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 2–1 6.8%

#4 0–2 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Erzgebirge Aue1.4

MSV Duisburg1.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 42.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ERZGEBIRGE AUE · PPG 1.06

MSV DUISBURG · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

Erzgebirge Aue (H) 28.7%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +30.4%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +11.8%

MSV Duisburg (A) 44.7%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -31.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Erzgebirge Aue face MSV Duisburg in Germany - 3. Liga on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Erzgebirge Aue a 29% chance, the draw 27% and MSV Duisburg 45%, so MSV Duisburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Erzgebirge Aue and 1.9 for MSV Duisburg (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Erzgebirge Aue are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.11 for MSV Duisburg. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Erzgebirge Aue vs MSV Duisburg Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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