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Paderborn vs Karlsruher SC Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Matchday 33 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 16:30

Paderborn

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWDW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Karlsruher SC

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 70% chance

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-13.6%0-22.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-06.3%1-18.2%1-25.3%1-32.3%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.2%2-19.4%2-26.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.5%3-17.2%3-24.7%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-17.1%4+-24.6%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 73.5% 1.36 -31.7%

Draw 24.3% 20.0% 5.00 +12.9%

Away win 25.5% 14.3% 7.00 +47.1%

Over 2.5 61.7% 73.5% 1.36 -16.1%

Over 3.5 48.5% 52.6% 1.90 -7.8%

BTTS 58.8% 67.6% 1.48 -13.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.8%

H 50% / xG 2.3-1.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.2%

#4 3–1 7.2%

#5 2–2✓ 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paderborn2.3

Karlsruher SC1.3

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 48.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PADERBORN · PPG 2.00

KARLSRUHER SC · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

70%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=50.2%

Win probability 1X2

Paderborn (H) 50.2%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -31.7%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +12.9%

Karlsruher SC (A) 25.5%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +47.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paderborn face Karlsruher SC in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paderborn a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Karlsruher SC 26%, so Paderborn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Paderborn and 1.3 for Karlsruher SC (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paderborn are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.81 for Karlsruher SC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +47.1%. This match finished 2-2.

Paderborn vs Karlsruher SC Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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