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Rakow C. vs Korona Kielce Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 32 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 16:00

Rakow C.

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Korona Kielce

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-110.0%0-25.0%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.1%1-113.0%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.5%2-18.5%2-24.2%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.7%3-13.7%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 55.2% 1.81 -19.8%

Draw 29.3% 27.0% 3.70 +5.1%

Away win 26.3% 24.4% 4.10 +4.7%

Over 2.5 46.1% 55.6% 1.80 -17.0%

Over 3.5 19.9% 33.3% 3.00 -24.2%

BTTS 52.3% 57.8% 1.73 -9.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 10.1%

#3 1–0 13.1%

#4 2–0✓ 8.5%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rakow C.1.3

Korona Kielce1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.1% · O3.5 PROB 19.9%

Form & verdict PPG

RAKOW C. · PPG 1.57

KORONA KIELCE · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

56%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.57) > Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Rakow C. (H) 44.3%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -19.8%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +5.1%

Korona Kielce (A) 26.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +4.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rakow C. face Korona Kielce in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rakow C. a 44% chance, the draw 29% and Korona Kielce 26%, so Rakow C. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Rakow C. and 1.0 for Korona Kielce (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rakow C. are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.07 for Korona Kielce. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Rakow C. vs Korona Kielce Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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