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WSPG Wels vs Sturm Graz B Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Regular Season - 29 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 16:00

WSPG Wels

PPG 1.31 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sturm Graz B

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-18.3%0-24.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.8%1-112.4%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.8%2-19.2%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.4%3-14.6%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.4%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% 40.0% 2.50 +18.8%

Draw 26.9% 29.0% 3.45 -4.3%

Away win 25.6% 40.0% 2.50 -21.6%

Over 2.5 46.5% 57.8% 1.73 -19.6%

Over 3.5 24.9% 36.4% 2.75 -18.9%

BTTS 52.4% 64.5% 1.55 -18.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.5%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.4%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 11.8%

#3 0–0 7.9%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 2–0✓ 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

WSPG Wels1.5

Sturm Graz B1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 24.9%

Form & verdict PPG

WSPG WELS · PPG 1.31

STURM GRAZ B · PPG 1.15

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.31), Away AVERAGE (1.15)

Win probability 1X2

WSPG Wels (H) 47.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +18.8%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -4.3%

Sturm Graz B (A) 25.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

WSPG Wels face Sturm Graz B in Austria - 2. Liga on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives WSPG Wels a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Sturm Graz B 26%, so WSPG Wels are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for WSPG Wels and 1.0 for Sturm Graz B (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, WSPG Wels are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.15 for Sturm Graz B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.8%. This match finished 2-0.

WSPG Wels vs Sturm Graz B Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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