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Adelaide Comets vs Sturt Lions Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 11:00

Adelaide Comets

PPG 0.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Sturt Lions

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 66.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a clear edge.

+14.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-16.7%0-210.0%0-39.9%0-4+15.4%1 1-01.8%1-15.5%1-28.1%1-38.1%1-4+12.6%2 2-00.7%2-12.2%2-23.3%2-33.3%2-4+5.1%3 3-00.2%3-10.6%3-20.9%3-30.9%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.2% 28.2% 3.55 -34.0%

Draw 21.6% 25.6% 3.90 -9.5%

Away win 66.2% 57.8% 1.73 +14.5%

Over 2.5 61.7% 69.4% 1.44 -11.2%

Over 3.5 52.5% 50.0% 2.00 +5.0%

BTTS 54.6% 71.4% 1.40 -23.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)3.0 BTTS prob54.6%

A 66% / xG 0.8-3.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.0%

#2 0–3 9.9%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 1–3 8.1%

#5 0–4 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide Comets0.8

Sturt Lions3.0

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 52.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE COMETS · PPG 0.00

STURT LIONS · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide Comets (H) 12.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -34.0%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.5%

Sturt Lions (A) 66.2%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV +14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide Comets face Sturt Lions in Australia - South Australia NPL on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide Comets a 12% chance, the draw 22% and Sturt Lions 66%, so Sturt Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Adelaide Comets and 3.0 for Sturt Lions (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide Comets are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Sturt Lions. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Adelaide Comets vs Sturt Lions Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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