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Eltham Redbacks vs Port Melbourne Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 12 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 10:30

Eltham Redbacks

PPG 2.20 · HOME

8 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Port Melbourne

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.8% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-12.9%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.7%1-17.0%1-22.1%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.2%2-18.6%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.5%3-17.0%3-22.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-012.5%4+-17.6%4+-22.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.8% 73.5% 1.36 -7.8%

Draw 22.8% 21.1% 4.75 +5.0%

Away win 9.4% 20.0% 5.00 -31.8%

Over 2.5 59.3% 69.4% 1.44 -14.6%

Over 3.5 36.2% 49.0% 2.04 -26.2%

BTTS 48.2% 64.5% 1.55 -25.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 8-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.2%

H 68% / xG 2.4-0.6 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.2%

#2 3–0 11.5%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 1–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eltham Redbacks2.4

Port Melbourne0.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ELTHAM REDBACKS · PPG 2.20

PORT MELBOURNE · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.20), Away POOR (0.20) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Eltham Redbacks (H) 67.8%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -7.8%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +5.0%

Port Melbourne (A) 9.4%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -31.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eltham Redbacks face Port Melbourne in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eltham Redbacks a 68% chance, the draw 23% and Port Melbourne 9%, so Eltham Redbacks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Eltham Redbacks and 0.6 for Port Melbourne (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eltham Redbacks are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.20 for Port Melbourne. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.0%. This match finished 8-0.

Eltham Redbacks vs Port Melbourne Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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