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Brunswick Juven vs Northcote City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 12 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 10:30

Brunswick Juven

PPG 1.80 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Northcote City

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.8% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-18.2%0-26.0%0-32.9%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.1%1-111.7%1-28.5%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.7%2-18.3%2-26.0%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.7%3-13.9%3-22.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% 38.2% 2.62 -2.3%

Draw 26.3% 30.3% 3.30 -7.9%

Away win 36.4% 45.5% 2.20 -19.9%

Over 2.5 57.4% 65.4% 1.53 -12.2%

Over 3.5 32.4% 44.4% 2.25 -27.1%

BTTS 58.8% 71.4% 1.40 -17.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.8%

A 36% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 0–0 5.7%

#5 0–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brunswick Juven1.4

Northcote City1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BRUNSWICK JUVEN · PPG 1.80

NORTHCOTE CITY · PPG 2.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.80) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.17)

Win probability 1X2

Brunswick Juven (H) 37.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -2.3%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.9%

Northcote City (A) 36.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brunswick Juven face Northcote City in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brunswick Juven a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Northcote City 36%, so Brunswick Juven are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Brunswick Juven and 1.4 for Northcote City (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brunswick Juven are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 2.17 for Northcote City. This match finished 1-0.

Brunswick Juven vs Northcote City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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