Today / Australia - South Australia NPL / West Torrens vs Playford P.

West Torrens vs Playford P. Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 10:30

West Torrens

PPG 2.50 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Playford P.

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-14.4%0-24.5%0-33.0%0-4+2.4%1 1-04.0%1-18.0%1-28.0%1-35.4%1-4+4.3%2 2-03.6%2-17.2%2-27.3%2-34.9%2-4+3.9%3 3-02.1%3-14.3%3-24.4%3-32.9%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.9%4+-23.0%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% 38.2% 2.62 -8.0%

Draw 24.9% 27.0% 3.70 -4.7%

Away win 40.0% 46.5% 2.15 -14.0%

Over 2.5 61.7% 71.4% 1.40 -13.6%

Over 3.5 53.0% 52.6% 1.90 +0.7%

BTTS 63.0% 73.5% 1.36 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.0%

A 40% / xG 1.8-2.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%

#2 1–2 8.0%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 2–1 7.2%

#5 1–3 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

West Torrens1.8

Playford P.2.0

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 53.0%

Form & verdict PPG

WEST TORRENS · PPG 2.50

PLAYFORD P. · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.50) > Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

West Torrens (H) 35.1%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -8.0%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -4.7%

Playford P. (A) 40.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -14.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

West Torrens face Playford P. in Australia - South Australia NPL on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives West Torrens a 35% chance, the draw 25% and Playford P. 40%, so Playford P. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for West Torrens and 2.0 for Playford P. (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, West Torrens are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.75 for Playford P.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.7%. This match finished 3-3.

West Torrens vs Playford P. Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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