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Australia - Victoria NPL logo Australia flag Australia - Victoria NPL Regular Season - 12 Genis Steel Stadium· Melbourne Friday, May 8, 2026 10:30
Preston Lions logo Preston Lions PPG 1.40
1-0 HIT CS3
Dandenong City logo Dandenong City PPG 0.80
Away· -1.3% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 51.0%
Odds: 1.68 EV: -14.3%
Draw 26.4%
Odds: 3.70 EV: -1.4%
Away 22.6%
Odds: 4.33 EV: -1.3%
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 53.1% Odds: 1.70 -9.7%
Over 3.5 30.5% Odds: 2.75 -16.1%
BTTS 52.3% Odds: 1.65 -13.7%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 2-0
3rd 1-0
4th 2-1
5th 0-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Preston Lions
1.88
Dandenong City
0.90

Model Suggestion

Over 2.5 -9.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -9.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.80)

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