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Preston Lions vs Dandenong City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 10:30

Preston Lions

PPG 1.40 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Dandenong City

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-15.6%0-22.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.6%1-110.5%1-24.7%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.9%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.9%3-16.2%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-14.5%4+-22.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 59.5% 1.68 -14.3%

Draw 26.4% 27.0% 3.70 -1.4%

Away win 22.6% 23.1% 4.33 -1.3%

Over 2.5 53.1% 58.8% 1.70 -9.7%

Over 3.5 30.5% 36.4% 2.75 -16.1%

BTTS 52.3% 60.6% 1.65 -13.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.3%

H 51% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–0 11.0%

#3 1–0✓ 11.6%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Preston Lions1.9

Dandenong City0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 30.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PRESTON LIONS · PPG 1.40

DANDENONG CITY · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Preston Lions (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -14.3%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -1.4%

Dandenong City (A) 22.6%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Preston Lions face Dandenong City in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Preston Lions a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Dandenong City 23%, so Preston Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Preston Lions and 0.9 for Dandenong City (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Preston Lions are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.80 for Dandenong City. This match finished 1-0.

Preston Lions vs Dandenong City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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