Today / Australia - Victoria NPL / Oakleigh C. vs Dandenong T.

Oakleigh C. vs Dandenong T. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 10:15

Oakleigh C.

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Dandenong T.

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-13.4%0-22.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.0%1-18.1%1-24.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.2%2-19.6%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.5%3-17.5%3-24.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-17.7%4+-24.5%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 67.6% 1.48 -23.2%

Draw 25.1% 24.4% 4.10 +1.8%

Away win 23.0% 17.9% 5.60 +17.3%

Over 2.5 61.7% 65.4% 1.53 -5.6%

Over 3.5 46.7% 42.6% 2.35 +9.8%

BTTS 58.8% 62.5% 1.60 -5.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.8%

H 52% / xG 2.4-1.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.1%

#3 2–0✓ 8.2%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 3–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oakleigh C.2.4

Dandenong T.1.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 46.7%

Form & verdict PPG

OAKLEIGH C. · PPG 2.00

DANDENONG T. · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Oakleigh C. (H) 51.9%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -23.2%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +1.8%

Dandenong T. (A) 23.0%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +17.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oakleigh C. face Dandenong T. in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oakleigh C. a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Dandenong T. 23%, so Oakleigh C. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Oakleigh C. and 1.2 for Dandenong T. (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oakleigh C. are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.20 for Dandenong T.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Oakleigh C. vs Dandenong T. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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