Today / LKS Lodz vs Grodzisk M.

LKS Lodz vs Grodzisk M. Prediction

Thursday, May 7, 2026

LKS Lodz

PPG 1.80 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Grodzisk M.

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-14.7%0-23.4%0-31.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-06.6%1-19.4%1-26.7%1-33.2%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.5%2-19.3%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.3%3-16.1%3-24.4%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-14.8%4+-23.4%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% — — —

Draw 25.6% — — —

Away win 25.1% — — —

Over 2.5 61.7% — — —

Over 3.5 44.3% — — —

BTTS 58.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.8%

H 49% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 6.7%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

LKS Lodz2.0

Grodzisk M.1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 44.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LKS LODZ · PPG 1.80

GRODZISK M. · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

LKS Lodz (H) 49.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Grodzisk M. (A) 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

LKS Lodz face Grodzisk M. on Thursday, May 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives LKS Lodz a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Grodzisk M. 25%, so LKS Lodz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for LKS Lodz and 1.4 for Grodzisk M. (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, LKS Lodz are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.14 for Grodzisk M.. This match finished 3-2.

LKS Lodz vs Grodzisk M. Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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